News & Events

POD Research Institute (PODRI) announced its latest round of the ‘One Country Two Systems’ Index on March 31. The latest reading is 6.11, a 0.5% decrease from the previous round. The Index objectively assesses the current state of ‘One Country Two Systems’, compiled from university public opinion surveys and international institutional ratings, comprising 6 pillars and 24 sub-pillars. It is worth noting that the polling period of this report follows the aftermath of the Jimmy Lai case and the Tai Po Wang Fuk Court fire which undoubtedly had a negative impact on the mood of the community and affected the polling results. 

 

‘One Country Two Systems’ Index Declines, Mainstream Public Opinion Increasingly Moderates

 

The survey reveals a downward trend across all three core pillars of local public opinion compared to the previous half-year. Besides "High Degree of Autonomy" which saw its first decline of 2.3% from the previous period, "Human Rights and Freedom" and " Hong Kong -Mainland Relations" continued to fall, by 0.2% to 5.23 and 0.9% to 5.50 respectively. All 12 sub-pillars experienced fluctuations in this round. "Resolving via dialogue and negotiation" saw the largest drop (-5.3%), followed by "Self-conduct of administrative affairs" (-4.6%) and "Independent judiciary" (-2.8%).

 

In terms of international evaluation, the overall score for the second half of 2025 slightly decreased from 6.96 to 6.94 compared to the previous survey round. "Economic Openness" dropped from 9.47 to 9.42; "Civil Liberty" slightly decreased from 6.29 to 6.27; while "Democratic Development" remained stable at 5.12. Among the sub-pillars, "Security and safety" saw the largest increase, rising by 0.1% from 8.18 to 8.19. The sub-pillar with the largest decline was "Expression, association, and assembly," which fell by 2% from 2.99 to 2.93.

 

This round's survey also indicates a significant 2.4% increase in moderates, reaching 79.5%, suggesting a clear trend of de-radicalization and moderation in Hong Kong society. The proportion of centrists continues to dominate, reflecting a moderate mainstream public opinion. Support for both pro-establishment and non-establishment camps showed a declining trend; supporters from both major blocs are shifting towards a centrist stance, indicating that Hong Kong's political environment is gradually moving towards moderation. Simultaneously, regarding the conditions for promoting the sustained development of ‘One Country Two Systems’, the importance of "safeguarding national security" showed a synchronous upward trend across all three factions for the first time.

 

Ray Poon, Research Director of the POD Research Institute, stated: "These index changes clearly reveal the complexities and potential tensions between local perceptions and international observations." He emphasized that while achieving certain results in safeguarding national security, effectively addressing the local community's continuous concerns regarding high autonomy, human rights and freedoms, and institutional safeguards, and balancing the perception of stability and freedom at the international level, will be critical issues that urgently need to be resolved in deepening the practice of ‘One Country Two Systems’ in the future.

 

Northern Metropolis Development: Public Opinion Divergence and Policy Communication Challenges

 

This round of the survey for the first time explored public opinion on the Northern Metropolis Plan. The findings show clear age and political spectrum differences in public expectations. Younger and middle-aged groups (30-39 years old) expressed strong expectations for livelihood issues such as housing, employment, and Greater Bay Area integration, indicating their focus on personal development opportunities. The 50-59 age group, however, placed more emphasis on long-term development such as higher education. Regarding political stance, pro-establishment supporters generally held a high degree of optimism, while non-establishment supporters were relatively cautious. Interestingly, on the issue of "Greater Bay Area integration," non-establishment supporters showed higher recognition than their pro-establishment counterparts, reflecting unique interpretations and expectations for regional integration across different political spectrums.

 

Despite divergent views on the development vision, the data also revealed a common policy blind spot: regardless of age group or political background, public satisfaction with healthcare and living facilities in the New Territories North was generally low. This indicates that when promoting the Northern Metropolis, the government must not only respond to the urgent needs of different groups for housing and employment but also address the underlying concerns about inadequate basic infrastructure. The government needs to strengthen targeted communication strategies in the future to precisely respond to the demands of various social strata, thereby building social consensus and ensuring that the development benefits truly reach the broader public.

 

Education Confidence Rises, Civil Service and Government Satisfaction Decline, Public Adopts Significant Wait-and-See Attitude Towards New LegCo

 

Latest poll results indicate that public confidence in Hong Kong's education system has risen to its highest level since 2025. However, concurrently, public satisfaction with civil service performance has fallen to a one-year low, with net satisfaction declining from the previous period. This decline was particularly noticeable among the 30-39 and 60+ age groups, and net satisfaction among non-establishment supporters saw a significant drop of 11.2%, indicating that the civil service is facing cross-political spectrum pressure of expectations.

 

Overall satisfaction with the HKSAR government also continued to decline, falling by another 2.4 percentage points from six months ago to 35.5%. Dissatisfaction remained at 45.1%, widening the net satisfaction gap to -9.7%. Analysis suggests that the Wang Fu Court fire incident and its subsequent handling were key factors triggering a shift in public sentiment, reflecting high public expectations for crisis accountability mechanisms and increasingly stringent standards for evaluating governance performance.

 

Regarding the new Legislative Council, the public generally holds a wait-and-see attitude towards its role in promoting Hong Kong's future development. Although the public holds high expectations for the performance of newly elected legislators by the end of 2025, hoping that the legislative body can more effectively reflect public opinion, oversee government administration, and propose constructive solutions for livelihood and economic issues, survey data shows that 45.5% of respondents are pessimistic about the future of the new LegCo, while 36.4% are optimistic. This complex sentiment, where worry outweighs expectation, is closely related to generational and ideological divisions: the 30-39 age group remains more pessimistic, while those aged 50 and above are relatively more optimistic; apart from pro-establishment supporters, other political leaning groups generally adopt a cautious attitude. This reflects voters' preliminary assessment of the new LegCo's operation and foreshadows continuous accountability pressure on its future governance, particularly concerning the quality of deliberation and oversight effectiveness.

 

Ronny Tong, Head of POD Research Institute, stated: "While the minor decline in the HKSAR government's overall satisfaction undoubtedly reflects the negative impact of the Jimmy Lai case and the Wang Fuk Court fire, it is nevertheless an early warning to which the SAR Government should not lightly brush aside. It is inevitable that high profiled national security cases will cause unease and a sense of insecurity to a lot of people in Hong Kong. For this reason alone, such cases must be handled with the utmost care. The Wang Fuk Court fire incident and its subsequent handling not only tested the government's crisis response capabilities but also profoundly reflected the public's high expectations for public safety, accountability mechanisms and increasingly stringent standards for evaluating governance performance. This reminds us that a single major social event may sometimes pose a weathervane for public opinion and likewise must be handled with the utmost care and sensitivity."

 

 

For the full report and survey results, please visit: https://podresearch.hk/1c2s-index   

 

Notes:

1. The local public opinion telephone survey (landline and mobile) was conducted by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at The Chinese University of Hong Kong from December 8, 2025 to January 14, 2026. The survey randomly sampled 1,009 Hong Kong residents aged 18 or older, with a landline response rate of 53.5%, a mobile response rate of 54.2%, and a sampling error of ±3.09%.
2. The international assessment scores were collected from long-term tracking indices compiled by nine international think tanks, encompassing 127 indicators and evaluating and ranking 148 countries and regions.
3. Historical data has been uploaded to the online data platform; please refer to: https://podresearch.hk/1c2s-index