Policy Advocacy

In April 2025, the United States imposed a 145% tariff on imports from China, including Hong Kong, raising questions about Hong Kong’s trade resilience (China Briefing, 2025). On April 16, 2025, USA Today reported a proposed 245% tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S., marking a significant escalation in the U.S.-China trade war (Anderson, 2025). This study evaluates Hong Kong’s capacity to adapt without U.S. trade, using 2024 data to assess survival potential, import substitution, and export redirection. U.S. trade, at HK$264.42 billion (2.79% of HK$9,464.5 billion total trade), is minor compared to Hong Kong’s diversified markets. Imports (HK$217.62 billion) can be sourced from Japan, South Korea, and Germany, while exports (HK$46.80 billion) can shift to China, ASEAN, and Europe. Despite short-term re-export challenges, Hong Kong’s service-driven economy and free port status ensure robustness, bolstered by strategic diversification efforts.