評論文章

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries effective May 1 has an immediate and practical explanation. Hemmed in by production quotas that cap output well below the UAE’s stated ambition of 5 million barrels per day by 2027, and operating in a wartime environment where Strait of Hormuz disruptions have already constrained exports, Abu Dhabi apparently concluded that the timing minimised collateral damage to fellow members while maximising its own strategic flexibility. The UAE’s energy minister said as much directly.

Yet to read the decision as purely commercial would be incomplete. It takes place against a broader reconfiguration of global power that deserves attention.

For decades, the United States benefited from a system in which oil trade, financial flows and security guarantees were tightly linked and denominated in dollars. That arrangement is now under genuine pressure.

Since the freezing of Russian sovereign assets in 2022, many countries have questioned whether dollar-denominated holdings are politically neutral. Central banks have diversified reserves, increased gold holdings and explored alternative settlement mechanisms.

The UAE’s accession to the Brics grouping as a full member in 2024 reflects this wider hedging instinct – one shared across much of the Global South – even as Abu Dhabi has been careful to frame its membership in terms of balanced diplomacy rather than as a break with the West.

The Opec exit fits into this broader picture. Gulf states appear to be increasingly reluctant to be locked into any single framework, whether defined by Washington, Riyadh or the old production-quota architecture. The UAE’s decision to leave Opec was made without consulting Saudi Arabia, and the UAE’s foreign minister rather than its ruler attended a Gulf summit in Jeddah the day the announcement of the decision was made. These are signals worth reading carefully.

What they suggest is not that American influence in the Gulf has collapsed, but that the terms on which it rests are being quietly renegotiated. Dependency and alignment are no longer the same thing, and Gulf states are increasingly drawing that distinction. If Washington responds primarily through military pressure or financial coercion, it risks accelerating the very trend it seeks to contain.

The durability of the dollar-based order rests less on force than on the perception that the international financial system operates by consistent, predictable rules. That perception is what most needs tending.